I took a break from a hike in Oregon to record comments about Opendoor, a digital house flipper (instant buyer, or iBuyer), the latest meme stock that’s seeing massive volume despite a $6 billion market cap. 

I’ve linked my video below.

Under it, you’ll see a link to Curia’s latest livestream, where Eoin Treacy of Fuller Treacy Money and Simon Erickson of 7investing joined yours truly to talk about surprising AI stocks, TrumpRX, and private equity’s risks – and shared three stocks we’re looking at.

And if you’re in a reading mood, just keep scrolling: Analyst Shaoping has assembled a text summary of the livestream’s main points. 

Thanks for being a Curia reader!

James

Curia Investment Show #3 — Audience Cheat Sheet

Host: James Early
Guests: Simon Erickson (7investing) | Eoin Treacy (FullerTreacyMoney)
Format: Hidden AI Winners → Trump Rx → Private Equity → Stock Ideas → Q&A

1) AI’s Hidden Winners

James: 95 % of generative-AI pilot programs fail (MIT NANDA study). ChatGPT use has leveled off; image generation is way down. A few giants may win, but investors can still look for “picks & shovels” plays.

Simon: Headlines focus on OpenAI ($500 B valuation) and chipmakers (Nvidia, AMD). AMD just signed a 6 GW chip-supply deal with OpenAI (~ $180 B of revenue by his estimate). But the backdoor angle is the suppliers behind the data-center boom.

• Largest U.S. nuclear plant = 4.5 GW; Meta’s new data center = 5 GW — showing the scale.
• Average cost ≈ $40 B per GW of capacity.
• Not just chips: cooling towers, chillers, networking, air-handlers, power gear.

Example: Vertiv (VRT) — makes cooling equipment. Historically 7–8 % sales growth → 17 % in 2024 → 35 % y/y in Q2 2025. Now struggling to meet demand.

James: “Sleepy industrials” are suddenly hot. Even with a P/E ≈ 78, Vertiv has real earnings. Buy during pessimism, hold long-term.

Plain takeaway: AI spending is enormous; you don’t have to pick the chip winner—focus on the infrastructure everyone needs.

2) Trump Rx & Pharma/Biotech Shift

James: New Trump Rx plan sells drugs directly from manufacturers online; Pfizer first partner. Tariff exemption offsets lower “most-favored-nation” pricing. Headlines look good, but how big is the market?

Eoin: Trump Rx is mostly marketing, but pharma benefits from tariff relief and reduced election pressure. Big pharma, mid-caps, and biotech were sliding; now valuations are low, cash flow strong, and politics calmer. Pfizer broke its downtrend.

• Vaccine boom drained capital from other fields (like immuno-oncology). A cancer-ETF even folded in June ’25.
• Money is returning to under-funded biotech. Biotech often outperforms late in bull markets.

James: Explains pharma vs. biotech (“studio vs. indie film” analogy). Tariff exemptions flip Trump Rx from negative to positive for drugmakers.

Plain takeaway: Policy timing and capital flows favor biotech and pharma into 2026; AI-based drug discovery adds a new angle.

3) Private Equity Bubble and What Comes Next

Eoin: Biotech’s funding links to private equity search for “good mines.” Private equity needs returns as liquidity tightens.

James: Low rates made private equity fashionable; companies stayed private (longer) to avoid public-listing costs. Now valuations face pressure as rates rise and redemptions increase. “Private-market liquidity is a joke.” Possible bubble deflating.

Eoin: “Don’t mistake a bull market for brains.” There are more private-equity firms than McDonald’s restaurants (KKR data). Expect a shake-out—only the best survive. Brookfield (“PE royalty”) sees a $7 T AI infrastructure opportunity and is buying data-center assets.
Simon: Adds BlackRock (BLK) as a “sneaky angle”: expanding into private deals and infrastructure investments.

Plain takeaway: Private-equity returns are normalizing. Stick to the quality firms building real assets (like data centers).

4) Stock Spotlight & Warnings

• Eoin: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) — owns CRISPR IP; 3-year slide reversing. “Buy low” setup as biotech turns.
• Simon: Lululemon (LULU) — consumer weakness hit sales (–3 % NA comps). Still strong brand; may be cheap after sell-off.
• James: Opendoor (OPEN) — meme warning. Flipper model risky; Zillow failed similar plan. Multiple fines ($39 M + $62 M) and convertible debt = dilution risk. “Party may end soon.”

Plain takeaway: Be selective—buy turnarounds (Intellia, Lulu), avoid meme-driven speculation (Opendoor).

5) Audience Q&A Highlights

• Chip makers: Simon — “Yes, it’s a bubble and still running.” Eoin — “Size your positions; worst mistake is being out.”
• Bubble exit signal: Eoin — Watch for cap ex slowing and stocks stalling while hype peaks.
• Private equity risk: James — Performance varies; avoid generic FOMO. Eoin — “If shares rise, the business works; if they fall, it doesn’t.”
• Uranium & SMRs: Eoin — U.S. imports 90 % of fuel; look at Centrus (LEU) to scale refining for HALEU (20 % fuel). SMRs need permitting and scale; commodity uranium = more volatile.

Final Reminders

• Commentary only — not investment advice.
• AI buildout creates winners beyond chips.
• Biotech and pharma regaining capital flows.
• Private equity faces “winnowing.”
• Uranium story = domestic fuel first, SMRs later.